The sharp decline in mortgage rates does little to increase demand

November 17, 2022: -In the previous week, Mortgage application volume rose 2.7% compared to the last time, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index.

One more adjustment was made for the Veteran’s Day holiday.

The slight increase followed a government report in the previous week showing that inflation may be beginning to ease. Thursday saw the sharpest one-day decrease in the rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage since record-keeping started in 2009.

 That sent bond yields plunging and mortgage rates with them. On an average of the week, the rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with loan balances came down to 6.9% from 7.14%, with points coming down to 0.56 from 0.77 for loans with a 20% down payment.

Daily, the rate on Thursday has decreased by 60 basis points, a separate survey from Mortgage News Daily reported.

Applications to refinance a home loan decreased by 2% for the week and were 88% below the previous week. The rate drop came toward the end of the week, and Friday was a federal leave, Veteran’s Day, so that may refinance demand has yet to react completely to the rate drop.

Mortgage applications to purchase a home, which doesn’t generally react quickly to interest rate transfers, increased 4% for the week and were 46% below the same week in 2021.

“Purchase applications increased for all loan types, and the average purchase loan dipped to its smallest amount since January 2021,” said Joel Kan, a Mortgage Bankers Association economist.

Loan sizes may be falling, too, due to home prices or potentially more first-time buyers getting into the market again at the entry level.

Mortgage rates did not move much this week, but the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury dropped Tuesday morning after a monthly read on U.S. producer prices increased slightly slower than expected.

They fell further later, hitting a nearly six-week low, after news broke that missiles hit Poland, killing two people. That sparked fears of greater political risk in the already war-torn region. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.