U.S. and China aviation returned with fewer than anticipated following Covid completed

June 1, 2023: According to a Nomura description, fewer than 6% of U.S. flights to and from mainland China in 2019 have resumed.

In distinction, the report showed that flights between mainland China and Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Italy are almost back to pre-pandemic frequency or better, citing data as of May 22 from Variflight.

“We think geopolitical factors in China’s outbound tourism resurrection are clearly at play here,” Nomura’s Chief China Economist Ting Lu and a team stated in the report on Monday.

In March, China brokered the repair of diplomatic ties between Middle East opponents Saudi Arabia and Iran. Beijing has refused to condemn Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine while calling for peace talks.

Tensions between the U.S. and China have meanwhile simmered. China’s representative to the U.S. assumed office the previous week after a gap of about six months with no one in the position.

This past weekend, an Air China flight between Beijing and New York marked a Chinese carrier’s first direct passenger on the route in months. It was one of the four unique weekly flights between the two countries by Chinese airlines that the U.S. Department of Transportation approved in May.

Previously, the only regular wild flights by Chinese carriers between mainland China and New York since the pandemic were from Shanghai and Guangzhou. The cross-border non-stop flights also cover Los Angeles.

On the other hand, reports say U.S.-based airlines control chosen only to resume a few flights between the U.S. and China. That’s because restrictions on flying over Russian airspace give Chinese carriers an advantage, an added cost of $2 billion a year for the three major U.S.-based airlines.

In early January, Beijing relaxed border controls after nearly three years. It scrapped inbound quarantine requirements while allowing more people to get visas for travel in and out of the mainland.

Delta resumed direct flights between the U.S. and China from Shanghai to Seattle and Detroit in March.

Overall, mainland China’s international flights remain below 40% of 2019 levels, the Nomura report said.

The analysts expect that level to increase to 70% by year-end as international flights recover around the summer holiday season.