April 20, 2023: On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury yields increased following another sticky inflation document in the U.K. heightened concerns that international central banks would require to stay the course with their tightening campaigns.
The yield on the Treasury was up by over five basis points to 3.625%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was previously trading at 4.273% after rising by seven basis points. Products and prices have an inverted connection. One basis point is 0.01%.
A reading of U.K. inflation rose 10.1% annually, above expectations for it to slow below a double-digit increase. U.K. CPI inflation increased 0.8% every month, above the economists’ consensus of 0.5% from Reuters.
Following the U.K. report, traders surged their bets the Federal Reserve will have to increase rates at least once more when it meets next month. There’s an over 83% chance the Fed will increase rates by a quarter-point at its next meeting, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool stated.
Fed officials stated recently that rates could continue to rise. That includes Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who expected a further 25 basis point interest rate hike to happen after the central bank’s coming up meeting.
Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s Scott Wren does not expect rate slashes this year, a factor likely to trigger a slowing increase and a recession at some point this year, and warns investors from chasing rallies.
“As a result, we believe the S&P 500 will likely change in a range with the upper end near levels and downside support almost 3,700 or just below,” the senior international market strategist wrote in a Wednesday note. “Bond yields also are to trade toward their highs of the past in some months in our view.”
After it topped 5% in March, the 2-year Treasury yield decreased below 3.5% in the regional bank crisis. Since then, the work has recovered much of that ground as traders bet the Fed will keep hiking rates despite recession concerns.
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