April 17, 2023: -The Japanese yen could make a strong 120 per dollar on the back of a transfer in the central bank policy.
“We have quite increased conviction in our view, we look at 125 [per dollar] by the end of June, and we’re noticing at 120 by the end of this year,” stated Craig Chan, Nomura’s head of global FX strategy.
The forecast is stated by Nomura’s view that the Fed has hit “the peak” in terms of increasing rates and how the Japanese financial holding company anticipates the Bank of Japan could tweak its yield curve policy.
“We believe the Fed is at the peak. But I think it’s about the local story. There’s certainly, in our view, still tweak risk near the BOJ policy,” said Chan.
In his inaugural briefing on Monday, local media reported that the BOJ’s new governor Kazuo Ueda focused his intention to “maintain unconventional monetary policies” to get the central bank’s 2% inflation goal.
Ueda stated that it was “appropriate” to retain the bank’s current yield curve control (YCC) and hostile interest rate policies.
Under Japan’s yield curve control policy, short-term interest prices are kept at an ultra-dovish level of -0.1%, and the 10-year government bond yield is at 0.5% over or below zero.
The U.S. March consumer cost index came in more excellent than expected, with a few economists who predict the Fed’s rate hiking cycle could soon halt.
On Thursday, the Japanese yen in the previous traded at 133 against the U.S. dollar in Asia trade. A 120 yen per dollar forecast meant the money would strengthen by about 21% from October 20 ′s peak of 151.94.
While it’s different gauging what kind of tweak the BOJ will undertake and when it could take place, Chan stated, “The probability increases as we continue to move along this year.”
“It could be moving the target away from the 10-year, hence to five-year, to two-year,” he postulated, which said that a “complete abandonment of the policy is unrealistic at this point.”
As for when the tweak could happen, Chan forecasted it could come as soon as the end of April or June.
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