June 14, 2022: -President Emmanuel Macron is confronting a challenging fight to win an absolute majority in parliament that would allow governing with a free hand after a strong showing by a current left-wing alliance in the initial-round election on Sunday.
The starting estimates by Elabe put the hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon’s NUPES bloc with Macron’s Ensemble! Alliance in the initial round, with 26.20% and 25.8%, respectively.
Elabe projected Ensemble would win between 260-300 parliament seats – with the mark for an outright majority set at 289 seats -on June 19 and forecasted the left would secure 170-220 seats, a significant increase from 2017.
With rampant inflation driving up living costs and eroding wages, Macron has faced difficulties in building on his re-election in April with Melenchon, which casts him as a free marketeer with more additional intent on protecting the wealthy than hard-up families.
“Given this result and the extraordinary opportunity it offers us and the destiny of the common homeland, I call on people in the coming Sunday to defeat the disastrous politics of the majority of Macron,” Melenchon said.
With the second-round system applied to 577 constituencies across the country, the popular vote in the initial round is a poor indicator of who will eventually win a majority in the upcoming week.
The ability to pass his reform plan, including a contested pension reform that would see the French work longer, is at stake. It is essential to ensure long-term order in the public finances.
Government insiders expected a relatively poor showing for Macron’s coalition in the sooner round on Sunday.
Pollsters projected several records of voters abstained, with over half of all registered voters staying away from polling stations on a hot, sunny Sunday.
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