June 14, 2023: According to the latest research in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the area scorched from wildfires in California’s northern and central forests increased fivefold from 1971 to 2021, mainly driven by human-caused conditions change.
The ten huge wildfires in California happened in the last two decades, five of which occurred in 2020 and eight after 2017. And scientists estimate the area ignited in an average summer could rise as much as 50% by mid-century as hotter and drier states intensify the blazes.
The analysis comes days after wildfire smoke from Canada traveled to the U.S. East Coast and created hazardous air grade levels in major metro areas such as Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and New York City.
The researchers performed a statistical analysis of temperature and wildfire data for summers in California between 1971 and 2021 and assessed models that showed how the last few decades may have looked without human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. They discovered that burned areas increased 172% more than they would have without climate change.
“It has become clear that anthropogenic climate change is the major driver of this increase in wildfire damage,” Amir AghaKouchak, a UCI professor of civil engineering and an author of the paper, said in a release.
The researchers identified less than average precipitation, hotter summer temperatures, lower springtime mountain snowpack, and more frequent climate extremes as elements connecting climate change and wildfire risk.
Studies have also shown that climate change and variability are responsible for creating dry air and fueling a =more significant vapor pressure deficit, or the difference between the amount of moisture in the air and how much water it can hold when it’s saturated. Another factor contributing to fires is poor forest management, which leaves dead wood and undergrowth that help ignite blazes.
“Our paper makes it clear that the problem is ours to fix and that we can take steps to help solve it,” AghaKouchak said. “By acting now to reduce our carbon dioxide emissions and pursue more bearable transportation, energy production, and agricultural practices, we can decrease the adverse effects of international climate change.”
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