May 11, 2023: On Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams cautioned that interest rate surges would take a while to go through the economy before inflation returns to an acceptable level.
The central bank official did not forecast where he sees policy headed but said he expects inflation to come back to the Fed’s 2% goal in the next two years. Should inflation not decrease, he said the Fed always has the option to raise rates.
He added that unemployment would likely rise to a 4%-4.5% range from its present 54-year low of 3.4%.
“Because of the lag amid policy actions and their effects, it will take time for reacting to restore balance to the economy and come back inflation to our 2% target,” Williams stated in prepared feedback at the Economic Club of New York.
Williams is speaking six days following the FOMC vote to raise its benchmark rate by different quarter percentage points to an aiming range of 5%-5.25%. In its post-meeting statement, the committee hints it could pause rate hikes. However, it said officials would consider various factors when determining how to proceed.
The committee is removing a key phrase from the statement that had indicated additional price hikes would be appropriate. Williams, an FOMC voter, stated that the decision is a matter of what the incoming information says.
“First of all, we have not stated that we’re done raising rates,” Williams said during a Q&A session after his speech. “We’re going to ensure we’re going to achieve our goals, and we will assess what’s happening in our economy and decide based on that data.”
“I do not witness in my baseline forecast any reason to slash interest rates this year,” he said, adding that extra rate hikes would be possible if the data doesn’t cooperate.
He said the current banking industry concerns and their impact would affect Williams’ policy outlook.
“I will be particularly focused on getting the evolution of credit conditions and their reasons on the outlook for development, employment and inflation,” Williams stated.
A few positive signs Williams cited include moderation in longer-term inflation anticipation and a cooling in demand for labour that has heated the jobs market and put an upward force on wages, which have not been successful in keeping up with cost-of-living increases.
He also said clogged labour chains, a significant inflation contributor, have “improved considerably” over time.
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