Eurozone inflation speed skates to 9.2% as fuel price wave chills

January 9, 2023: -In December, inflation in the eurozone decreased for a second consecutive month, but analysts do not anticipate it to spark a change in tone from the European Central Bank.

Headline inflation, including food and energy costs, came in at 9.2% every year in December, according to preliminary data on Friday from the European statistics agency, Eurostat. It is after November’s headline inflation rate of 10.1%, representing the first slight price contraction since June 2021.

The euro area economy has come under extreme pressure in the wake of Ukraine’s invasion of Russia in February 2022, with energy and food costs soaring in the previous year. To battle increasing prices, the European Central Bank increased interest prices four times in 2022 and stated it would continue doing so this year. The bank’s primary rate currently stays at 2%.

Despite the other indications that inflation is easing, analysts say it is too soon to celebrate and do not anticipate a pivot from the area’s central bank.

Interest price will “get to 3% and probably have to be with that all through the year even as the slump is more evident,” Hetal from Legal & General Investment Management said.

Following ECB President Christine Lagarde is at a particularly hawkish tone in December. “We’re not turning; we’re not wavering; we are showing determination.” She then stated that the bank has “more ground to cover.”

This week, ECB Governing Council people and French Central Bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau stated that interest rates might peak this summer.

The ECB said in December that it would start reducing its balance sheet at a speed of 15 billion euros every month until the end of the second quarter. This step is also anticipated to address a few of the region’s inflationary pressures.

The central bank forecast a medium inflation price of 8.4% for the year 2022, 6.3% for 2023 and 3.4% for the next year. The bank’s compulsory is to work toward a headline inflation figure of 2%.

Energy costs have decreased in Europe in the latest months. Natural gas prices, for example, traded at almost 72.42 euros per megawatt hour on Friday, sharply lower than their highest point of 349.90 euros per megawatt hour in August.