August 18, 2022: -On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury yields increased on softer demand for fixed income assets as investors stayed for the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its meeting in July.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note increased just over eight basis points to 2.906%, while the work on the 30-year Treasury bond traded about four basis points to 3.152%. Yields move inversely to prices, with a basis point similar to 0.01%.
The shorter-term 2-year Treasury note yield was up to ten basis points at 3.354%. The climb in yields differs from the dip seen at the start of the week amid a soft U.S. East Coast manufacturing survey and reports of slowing growth in China.
Markets seem to expect the Fed to ease its tightening cycle on somewhat enhanced U.S. inflation news, as the surge in consumer prices slowed in the last month, but it’s unclear whether the Fed will take on the same sentiment.
Data released Wednesday showed demand for mortgages fell to its lowest level in above two decades in the previous week, even as rates declined slightly.
At the same time, retail data showed that activity remained flat in July as consumers shifted to paying online, and falling fuel prices contributed to a decline in gas station sales.
Building permits slipped 1.3% but beat estimates. It comes on the back of Tuesday’s accommodation starts data, which revealed a 9.6% decrease from June, well outside the expected 2.5% drop as anticipated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Builders have reported weakening demand since June, with fears of a lodging recession in the U.S. on the rise.
A few in the industry say it’s already here. “Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently promoted construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, informed CNBC.
Investors will be watching for the Fed’s Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes from July 26 and 27, when it chose to increase the target range for the federal funds rate from 1.5-1.75% to 2.25-2.5%.
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